Which teams could fill a 24-team World Cup?

Hong Kong are one of the contenders for an expanded Rugby World Cup.

Credit: HKRU

For years now, rugby’s governing bodies have tried to spread the sports outside of its traditional hubs and the improved results of Japan, Uruguay and the USA in recent years seems to suggest ‘emerging’ nations are starting to become more established. 

So the potential plans for a 24-team Rugby World Cup, possibly in place for the 2027 tournament, come as no surprise. CEO of World Rugby, Brett Gosper, said in 2018 it was a question of “when rather than if” for expansion and Bill Beaumont backed up those claims saying he was “anxious” to get more nations involved.

But who could be the beneficiaries of this move? The Flanker will take a look at each continent (excluding Antarctica obviously for you pedantic folk) and see who would be in pole position for a spot in Rugby’s Greatest Championship. 

Oh wait, that's the Six Nations motto isn’t? Ah well, nevertheless.   

Europe

Probably an area with the most potential candidates, the second tier of European Rugby is hotly contested and with Georgia starting to stake their claim as a Tier 1 nation there is an almighty scrap to become the new kings of Tier 2 in Europe.

A player registration scandal in last year’s qualification, sort of a rugby equivalent of mutually assured destruction, gifted a place in the 2019 tournament to Russia at the expense of World Cup regular Romania.  

They would expect to make the 2023 tournament this time around but it will be worth keeping an eye on both Spain and Germany as contenders to make the next World Cup three years from now. 

The make-up of Spain is remarkably similar to that of Uruguay in last year’s tournament. Predominantly made up from the country’s top division, there is a smattering of quality with a few plying their trade at French D2 clubs and standouts like Bayonne scrum-half Guillaume Rouet.

They have backed it up with impressive results. During the 2019 Rugby Europe Championship they beat Russia and Romania and were just 14 points shy of Georgia.

Indeed, were it not for the controversial defeat to Belgium in the 2018 tournament they could well have qualified for Japan. 

Germany meanwhile have even less players in Europe’s top leagues but have found impressive results nevertheless.

Beneficiaries of Romania and Spain’s expulsion, they made it to the 2019 Repechage tournament where they finished second, losing narrowly 29-10 to World Cup regulars Canada.

Relegation from the 2019 Rugby Europe Championship and subsequent losses to the Netherlands and Switzerland show there is much work to be done, but they look like a team with a lot of potential in the game.

Throw in teams like Russia, Belgium and Portugal and Europe is shaping up to be a hell of a scrap for whatever World Cup spaces are up for grabs.  

Americas

While Argentina have ruled the roost for decades now in South America, the improvements made by Uruguay shows rugby is starting to take hold in other football-mad countries. 

Licking their lips at further World Cup spots would be Brazil and their ungodly scrum. I mean, just look at what they did to the Maori All Black’s pack back in 2018. Crikey.

Brazil have taken a fair few scalps in recent years. In the 2019 Americas Rugby Championship, they beat Canada comfortably as well as arch-rivals Chile, themselves a contender for extra World Cup spots.

It should be worth mentioning they also beat the USA for the first time ever in 2016.  

Top scorer in that tournament was New-Zealand born fly-half Josh Reeves who just from looking at box-scores seems to have a metronomic boot able to keep Brazil in games, even if they’re up against it.

Formerly at Major League Rugby team Utah Warriors, he now plays for Brazil powerhouse Corinthians which make up the vast majority of the squad. 

As mentioned, Chile cannot be discounted as they came second in qualifying to Uruguay in the 2019 qualifying tournament while the development of Paraguay and Colombia should also be monitored.   

Coached by former Italy international and Argentina under-20s coach Rodolfo Ambrosio since 2014, Brazil is the team to watch when looking for an Americas nation to stake their claim in an extended World Cup. 

Africa

Although putting up brave fights in the World Cup proper, many have often wondered how Namibia continues to make it past the qualification stages. Frankly, it’s because the competition they have faced is not at their level yet. 

Kenya are perhaps the sleeping giant in this situation and the best 15s team after Namibia. A bit like Fiji, they have not been able to convert their continued 7s success into the full 15-man game. 

Beaten 53-28 by Namibia in African qualifying, they unfortunately got the wooden spoon in the Repechage tournament, handily beaten by Canada, Hong Kong and Germany. 

They were very close in reaching the 2015 tournament however. After beating Namibia in their first game they slipped up against Zimbabwe and ended up third in the group when they could have gone straight through to England 2015. 

What’s more they have achieved results against their competitors at under 20s level. Just last year Kenya beat Namibia in World Rugby Under 20s trophy play-off, an historic result as it was their first ever win over Nambia at that level, while sealing their first ever qualification for the tournament (after hosting the 2009 edition.)

Kenya celebrate their qualification to the World Rugby Under 20 Trophy in 2019.

Credit: Arigi Obiero

It appears there is a lot work to be done in bringing Union to the continent, but were Africa to get an extra spot the ‘Simbas’ would surely be in pole position.  

Asia

As mentioned one of the other members in the 2019 Repechage was Hong Kong, who qualified after handily dispatching South Korea and Malaysia in the Asia Rugby Championship and the Cook Islands (more on them later) in a play-off.  

Although losing against Germany and Canada they gave both teams a good game, finishing just 17 points shy of the North Americans, taking third place in the tournament.

Having reached the same stage in 2015, there is clearly groundwork being made in the territory.   

After Welshman Leigh Jones, now defence coach under Jamie Joseph at Japan, made great strides they are now under the tutelage of former Moseley, Newport-Gwent Dragons and Glasgow Warriors second-rower Andrew Hall. 

The recent touring squad to Wales was predominantly made up of expats. Prop Grant Kemp has played Super Rugby for the Southern Kings, fly-half Matthew Rosslee has experience with Western Province and Griquas while the fetchingly named Max Denmark attended prestigious rugby school Millfield in Somerset.

With Japan’s continued success almost guaranteeing another spot for Asia at the Rugby World Cup, Hong Kong look in a good position to stake their claim in 2027.  

Oceania

Already with an established group of rugby-playing nations, there seems to be a massive gulf in class when looking past the island nations of Fiji, Samoa and Tonga. 

The Cook Islands are possibly the biggest standouts and the simplicity of their qualifying, where they only needed to beat Tahiti to make it to a Repechage playoff, appears on the surface to show any sort of investment in the island could come to fruition quickly.

They have a massive task on their hands, however. In 2019’s qualification they were handily beaten by Hong Kong 77-3 over two legs and in the 2015 game against Fiji for the final Oceania place in the World Cup, they were thrashed 108-6. 

It’s not all doom and gloom. A few players in their squad play in Australia’s National Rugby Competition, captain Sam Anderson-Heather plays for Otago with appearances in Super Rugby while Shahn Eru and cross-coder Tyrone Viiga play in the French D2. 

This is probably the biggest ‘work in progress’ side out of any chosen so far, but an extra seven years of development and who knows, another pacific island nation could be causing havoc at World Cups once more. 

The Flanker picks for an extended World Cup: Spain, Germany, Hong Kong and Kenya.